Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan’s
sovereign credit rating at BBB with a stable outlook. According to
analysts, several key positive factors support the rating, including strong
fiscal and external balances that have demonstrated resilience to external
shocks, foreign currency assets of the National Fund, gold and foreign exchange
reserves of the National Bank, a low level of public debt, financing
flexibility, stable economic growth, and moderate geopolitical risks. Special
attention is given to the oil sector. According to forecasts, increased oil
production due to the expansion of the Tengiz oilfield is expected to offset
the impact of declining global oil prices. Among the positive trends, Fitch
experts also noted the reform of the Tax Code, which is expected to help reduce
the budget deficit in the medium term. Additionally, the contribution of the
non-oil sector to the economy is emphasized through budgetary and
quasi-budgetary mechanisms. The agency notes that the introduction of 25% U.S.
tariffs will not have a significant impact on Kazakhstan’s GDP, given the
country’s relatively small share in global trade.
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