The Lower House of the Kazakh Parliament announced a baseline scenario for Kazakhstan’s economy for the next five years. The inflation rate is expected to reach 7.5-9.5 percent in the coming year with a decrease to 4-5 percent by 2024 and 3-4 percent by 2025-2027. The real GDP growth is set to accelerate from 4 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in 2027. The nominal GDP will also increase from 120.7 trillion tenge up to around 177 trillion. Apart from that, the country is expected to increase crude oil production up to 100 million tonnes in five years, Kazakh Minister of National Economy Alibek Kuantyrov reported.
“The tasks set by the Head of State for the concept of prudent and responsible fiscal policy were fulfilled when drafting parameters of the state budget and the National Fund. The parameters of the state budget for 2023-2025 are determined considering fiscal policy aimed at generating new revenue sources and budgetary expenditures focused on priority areas of socio-economic development. Additional revenues to the state budget are provided through the measures taken by the Government to expand the revenue base, improve tax administration, and reduce the share of the shadow economy,” Kuantyrov said.
He had also submitted a draft law ‘On a guaranteed transfer from the National Fund of Kazakhstan for 2023-2025’, which was approved by the members of the Parliament.
“The bill was drafted in accordance with the new requirements of the Budget Code. The volumes of a guaranteed transfer from the National Fund are limited by the new budget rule, and they are determined taking into account the cut-off price for oil. According to forecasts, they will not exceed direct taxes received by the National Fund from oil companies. Thus, the bill sets the cut-off price for oil at US$48.9 per barrel in 2023, and US$42.2-40.3 per barrel in 2024-2025. Accordingly, the amount of the guaranteed transfer to the state budget in 2023 is set at 2.2 trillion tenge, with a further decrease to 2.0 trillion tenge in 2024 and to 1.9 trillion tenge in 2025,” Kuantyrov added.
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